On Tuesday, July 14, 2015, the world got a lot scarier. As President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry celebrated the completion of a ‘deal’ with Iran, an ominous feeling of déjà vu cast a long shadow over the news and on the prospects for peace in the world, perhaps for generations. While the administration told us throughout the long negotiations that they were prepared to walk away from the table, it was clear almost from the outset that these were negotiations they were not willing to see fail. In the process, they gave away the store and got nothing in return but the prospect of nuclear war.
Iran hasn’t been a viable negotiating partner since the days of the Shah, who was overthrown in 1979. They have cheated on every deal they have made, and there is nothing to suggest that their behavior will change now that they have so successfully concluded the negotiations in their favor. In fact, empowered by the agreement that gave them virtually everything they asked for and in which the P5+1 gave up every advantage, Iran is likely to be even more aggressive and deceptive in the future. Their arrogance was apparent even while the negotiations were going on, with huge rallies held simultaneously in Teheran in which the prevailing theme was “death to America, death to Israel”.
Déjà vu Obama’s ‘deal’ is reminiscent of two other such events in recent history. In September 1938, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain concluded the Munich Agreement with Adolf Hitler and declared on his return to England, “ My good friends, for the second time in our history, a British Prime Minister has returned from Germany bringing peace with honor. I believe it is peace for our time. We thank you from the bottom of our hearts. Go home and get a nice quiet sleep.”
Hitler had said he had “No more territorial demands to make in Europe.” But on October 1, less than a month later, German troops occupied the Sudetenland and, less than a year later, invaded Poland. This was the beginning of World War II in which more than 50 million people died.
Fifty-six years later, in President Bill Clinton’s four page Agreed Framework with North Korea, Pyongyang agreed to freeze the development of their covert nuclear program in exchange for two “proliferation-resistant” nuclear power reactors. As part of the deal, the United States was to supply North Korea with fuel oil until the new reactors were functional. At the conclusion of the Agreed Framework, Clinton said: “This agreement is good for the US, good for our allies, and good for the safety of the entire world.”
But like Iran, North Korea’s Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Il was prepared, above all things, to lie. By the end of that year, North Korea had shot down a US helicopter, and by early 1999, was clearly developing a serious nuclear program. The trusting US had been fooled and Kim Jong-Il got the bomb.
History Repeats Itself In his press conference on the day following the completion of the Iranian ‘deal’, President Obama echoed Bill Clinton, saying his ‘deal’ provided an “historic chance to create a safer and more secure world.”
In the course of the press conference, Obama raised the hypothetical issue of what would happen “if Iran should decide to cheat” on this deal. The President waxed whimsical on the subject, smiling and joking, while ignoring the fact that Iran has already been systematically cheating for years on its existing commitments, and hidden significant parts of its nuclear program where even today inspectors cannot find them.
The President’s remarks were based on the assumption that any cheating by Iran would be done in Iran. He did not refer, for example, to the fact that Iran has been collaborating with North Korea on nuclear development for many years. At first, North Korean scientists and technicians were seen in Iran. Then Iranian officials were seen attending North Korea’s missile launchings. In 2014, FreedmanReport.com received intelligence and reported that in December 2012, Iran began moving part of its nuclear development operations to North Korea, far from the prying eyes of international inspectors. Two facilities near Nyŏngbyŏn in North Pyongan province, some 50 miles north of Pyongyang, became a new center for Iran’s nuclear arms program.
While the seemingly endless negotiations dragged on with the P5+1, with long gaps between sessions, Iran was secretly supplying raw materials to the reactor at Nyŏngbyŏn for the production of plutonium (contrary to the President’s assertion that the ‘deal’ ensures that Iran’s access to plutonium has been “cut off”). At the second facility, located about fifteen miles north and with a code name that translates to ‘Thunder God Mountain’, nuclear warheads were being assembled and integrated with MIRV platforms. Then, about six months ago, an intelligence report revealed the Iran had achieved a breakthrough in miniaturizing their nuclear warheads, so they could be mounted on the slender Shahab missiles. Another stumbling block had been overcome and their delivery system took a huge step forward, while we continued to negotiate a ‘deal’ with them.
President Obama also did not refer to Iran’s activities in Venezuela and Argentina, where their efforts related to their nuclear program proceeds unabated, mining uranium and developing other aspects of their nuclear program without international oversight.
After implementing delay after delay in the talks with the West, Iran finally had its secret programs and nuclear development sufficiently secure in places where international inspectors would not find them, and was now ready to sign a ‘deal’ with the P5+1. Although the ‘deal’ purports to give the West a breathing space of some ten years before Iran will have the capability to ‘build the bomb’, our sources tell us that not only does Iran already have several nuclear devices, they also now have the capability to deploy them. Instead of a ten year window, we may actually have less than a year, perhaps only months. And an empowered Iran may now move forward aggressively to secure their dream of becoming a nuclear power.
In his press conference, the President assured Americans that the 159-page ‘deal’ “is the most definitive path by which Iran will not get a nuclear weapon, and we will be able to achieve that with the full cooperation of the world community and without having to engage in another war in the Middle East”. But the evidence points to the contrary.
The role of t’qiyah What all the negotiators appear to have missed (and if they didn’t miss it, but rather ignored it, then the implications are considerably more ominous) is that the Muslim ideology that drives Iranian policy encompasses the concept of t’qiyah (lying for the benefit of Islam). Iran has been consistent in its determination not to adhere to the terms of any agreement it has signed with non-Muslim partners. They lie because they can, and because they believe it is their obligation to do so in their radical practice of Islam.
As a result, an empowered Iran is not more likely to comply with the terms of the ‘deal’, but rather is more likely to continue to sabotage it, undermine it, and conceal their deceit as they continue to pursue their nuclear ambitions.
Capitulation as Policy As the talks dragged on and on, every time the P5+1 made a demand of Iran, and Iran objected, the P5+1 caved, right up to the last week. Just when negotiators thought they had finally finished the discussions, Iran made its last startling demand – to have the ban on weapons imports lifted. As close to the end of negotiations as they were, and as critical as the issue was regarding the importation of weapons to a state sponsor of terror, the P5+1 capitulated once again.
In his press conference, President Obama failed to explain the rationale behind the US succumbing to Iranian pressure at every turn. He also did not explain why it was necessary to lift sanctions on a long list of suspect individuals, companies, and programs. For example, the list included General Qassem Sulieman, head of the al Quds Force and arguably the most powerful terrorist operative in the Middle East, or why the de-listing also included his universally feared al Quds Force.
The ‘deal’ also provided a cash bonanza for Iran, with the release of over $100 billion of frozen assets. Beneficiaries of these funds will no doubt include Hezbollah, to whom Iran has already supplied some 170,000 rockets and missiles, the majority of which are aimed at Israel. Also at the receiving end will be Hamas, whose more primitive rockets are already being fired at Israeli cities and towns, and the Houthis, who are waging war in Yemen. The funds will also be used to secure advantage on other battlefields in the region, where until now Iranian troops have been less than successful, particularly in Iraq. The release of the funds will be a key prize for Iran to fund a host of nefarious projects on which it has set its sights, and represents a precedent in rewarding Iran for its bad behavior while providing no incentive to change it.
The Ayatollah Khamenei said it clearly enough: “The US embodies global arrogance and the battle against it will continue unabated even after the nuclear deal is concluded.”
Israel in the Middle Although Israel had no part to play in the negotiations, its very future is existentially subject to the consequences of this “very bad deal”. Iran has made no secret of its desire to eliminate Israel from the map. Even as Iran denies the events of the holocaust in which six million Jews were murdered by the Nazis, it dreams of a new holocaust in which the Jews of Israel will be destroyed. Only days ago, as Iran was finalizing the ‘deal’ with the P5+1, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei was leading a huge Iranian crowd chanting “Death to America – Death to Israel”.
Israel now finds itself between a rock and a hard place. Its mortal enemy, Iran, has been massively empowered by what has always been, until now, Israel’s strongest ally, the United States. The Jewish state is now faced with an existential threat from a terror-supporting state that has vowed to bring about its extinction and has now been granted the wherewithal to do so.
What threat would a nuclear Iran pose for Israel? Even given the wild-eyed psychosis of Iran’s leadership, it is questionable whether Iran would actually deploy a nuclear bomb to destroy Israel. The collateral damage in Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq may be seen, even by them, as too high a price. However, a nuclear Iran would become the 1,000 pound gorilla in the region and it might be enough just to possess the capability. Instead, the deployment of Hezbollah’s missiles and swarms of armed drones is another story, and may be too attractive a possibility for the newly power-crazed mullahs. Such an attack on Israel from the north would be a compelling threat and the possibility would be one that Israel could not ignore.
But however perilous Israel’s position may be, one thing is very clear. They will not sit quietly and wait for their own destruction. They are armed and dangerous, and collective suicide is not on their agenda. When Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, “Israel is not bound by this deal with Iran because Iran continues to seek our destruction. We will always defend ourselves,” the world had better believe him. While there are many who can barely remember the holocaust, Israel has not forgotten. “Never again” are not simply words to the Israelis. They are a promise and a trust to the six million Jews who were lost to the Nazis. “Never Again”.
The Broader Middle East The Israelis are not the only ones who fear a nuclear Iran. Saudi Arabia has already contracted with Pakistan to secure nuclear capability. The Arab Emirates and other gulf states are also in line exploring the possibilities of nuclear acquisition. The arms race has already begun, and the Middle East, as unstable as it is already, once armed with nuclear weapons, will be a tinderbox ready to explode.
Consequences It is rare that a US president is defined by an Israeli Prime Minister. But if this ‘deal’ is approved by Congress, Netanyahu’s description of it as a “stunning historic mistake’ will define Obama’s legacy. He will be remembered as the sower of global chaos. His Nobel Peace Prize, earned before he had accomplished anything at all, will gather dust and be forgotten.
It will be remembered that it was Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu who first defined the threat and the consequences if this “bad deal” goes through, because it carries in it the seeds of World War III. It will be Barack Obama who will carry the ignominy in his legacy when this deal fails.
Congress now has sixty days in which to decide whether to accept the ‘deal’ or reject it. If they choose to reject it, the President promises to Veto it. Then Congress must come up with two thirds of its members to override the veto. At this point, the President only needs 37 votes to uphold his veto, and if the members of Congress consider partisan issues above national security, then the ‘deal’ will go through.
But the US is not the only signatory to the agreement, so it likely will not matter whether or not Congress endorses it, because the other members of the P5+1 will no doubt carry on. European countries need the commerce with Iran and are hardly likely to join us in destroying the product of more than six years of negotiations.
There is little doubt that the consequences of this ‘deal’ will change the course of world history. Iran will get the bomb. The arms race has already begun. The hatred of generations will serve as a spark in search of a gas leak. And there is little doubt that at some point, in some place, the spark will ignite an inferno that will consume vast portions of the Middle East and the wider world. Jihadi terrorism will metastasize, spreading throughout the West, because there is no one to stop it.
The President’s insistence over the last six years that this ‘deal’ with Iran be concluded has led the world to the edge of a precipice from which it will be difficult to retreat. Just as with the so-called Arab Spring began with great expectations of democracy in the Middle East and ended instead in chaos and suffering, we are now entering a time of great global upheaval. The words of hope from Barack Obama and John Kerry will not spell the end to iIran’s nuclear ambitions, but will instead pave the road to a terrible new war, sparked by the P5+1′s delusions that peace can rise from appeasement.
In January 2017, the new president will have to pick up the pieces. He will have a huge job before him. We can hope that the American people will have the good sense to elect someone with the capacity to fill the tiny shoes that created the mess, and the wisdom and strength to bring order back to a wildly disordered world.
The legacy that Barack Obama will leave behind him will not be that he brought peace to warring nations, but that he danced with the devil and led the world into chaos, then went off to play golf.
Ilana Freedman is a veteran intelligence analyst specializing in Islamic terrorism and the implications of jihad in the West.
 A MIRV or Multiple Independent Reentry Vehicle is an offensive ballistic missile system that can support multiple warheads, each of which can be aimed at an independent target, but are all launched by a single booster rocket. According to reliable sources, the Iranian/North Korean version supports five war heads, two of which can be nuclear. To support this project, approximately 250-300 Iranian scientists were reported to be in North Korea, along with a small cadre of IRGC personnel to provide for their security.